O's 40-man set

Pitching prospect Steve Johnson is the son of former O's pitcher, Dave Johnson.

The Orioles set their 40-man roster today as the Rule 5 draft approaches.

The Rule 5 draft is where any team can draft a player not on another team's 40-man roster. The kicker is that the drafted player has to be placed on the 25-man roster come opening day, and remain there for the entire year. If that player doesn't make it with their new team, they are offered back to the original team.

Anyway, the Orioles failed to protect Steve Johnson, the 22-year-old prospect they acquired from the Dodgers earlier this season in the George Sherrill trade. Johnson is a decent prospect, nothing close to Brian Matusz status, but why the Orioles failed to protect Johnson is beyond me.

Granted, it's unlikely that a MLB team drafts Johnson, who has not even pitched 50 innings at AA ball, and keeps them for the entire season. But when you look at who the Orioles did protect over Johnson, it's enough to at least raise some eyebrows.

SP Chris Waters, age 29. 5.07 ERA in 76 IP. Waters is a dime a dozen bullpen arm who can start on occasion but probably shouldn't.

1B John Hughes, age 27. Career 798 OPS in MiL. Hughes has extremely poor plate discipline and with 1B prospects Brandon Snyder and Michael Aubrey in the system, this is a real head-scratcher.

RP Radhames Liz, age 27. Liz has spent time with the Orioles that most people want to forget. Straight fastball, poor control. If he is claimed, don't cry over spilled milk.

So there you have it. Johnson is in danger of being drafted by some other team who could stick him in their bullpen. He's got upside. And he should have been protected.

Now we'll just have to wait and see if this is a mistake that will come back to bite the Orioles in the ass.

They'll be back, Part 2

Matt Wieters will lead the promising Orioles offense into the future.

Now onto the hitters...

Brian Roberts' 2009 season was one of the few bright spots for the Orioles, when he totaled more than 50 doubles for the third time in his career. At age 32, Roberts could experience some regression going forward, meaning that he will no longer be a lock for an .800+ OPS season any longer. His range at 2B has also diminished somewhat, but, Roberts should be valuable for the length of his contract. His OBP is still decent for a leadoff hitter, and even if Roberts doesn't get those two-baggers into the fifties anymore, you can still pencil him in for 40 or more. Roberts is probably the most consistent Oriole player since Cal Ripken so there is no reason to expect a drastic slide from him yet. I'll go ahead and say Roberts will be good for a .285 AVG, 10 HR, 65 RBI, and an OPS right around .800.

There's no denying that Adam Jones was on fire for the month of April and May last year. However, after the weather warmed up, Jonsey cooled off. Jones also had a knack for playing too shallow in CF which led to him running back on flyballs and having them get over his head. That's easily fixable though. Jones battled nicks and scratches here and there and failed to play more than 120 games. So forget Jones' hot/cold streaks, let's just see if he can stay healthy for the length of one season first. But when healthy, I do expect Jones to put up a line like he did last year -- .280/20/80 with an OPS around .820. He'll just be more consistent throughout the entire season instead of doing it all within 2 months.

Nick Markakis had a setback in 2009. After having an OPS just a shade below .900 in 2008, Markakis had an OPS a shade above .800 in '09. He became almost predictable at the plate, refusing to swing at first pitch meatballs. But ironically, his refusal to swing lead to him walking 43 times less than he did in 2008. Markakis stays healthy, and is largely consistent despite going through two prolonged slumps last year (.719 OPS in May, .642 OPS in September), so I do expect him to bounce back in a big way in 2010 thanks to the continued improvement (and protection) of Nolan Reimold and Matt Wieters. You can also chalk Markakis' struggles up to Aubrey Huff sucking in '09. I'd throw a 2010 Markakis line of .300/23/100/.860 out there without batting an eyelash.

Nolan Reimold was the Orioles' best hitter as a rookie in 2009. Too bad he was sidelined with an Achilles injury that caused him to miss some time. That injury might also effect him in '10, so expect to see Reimold spending a lot of time in the DH spot next year. There's also been some rumblings of Reimold moving over to 1B to keep him healthy, since Felix Pie has pretty much wrapped up the LF position going forward. Bill James has a big season projected for Reimold, and I do too -- .300/30/90/.880.

Matt Wieters was the #1 prospect in all of baseball coming into last season. And while he did struggle at times in 2009, he eventually got going (.882 OPS in September). Wieters and Reimold could become a minor version of the Bash Brothers in 2010. It's because of these two players that I have high hopes for this offense, which was tepid in '09. Wieters should cruise to a .280/25/100/.900 line pretty easily barring injury.

Felix Pie was another bright spot in the second half of the Orioles season along with Roberts and Wieters. He posted a 1.045 OPS in August. And despite his blunders on the bases, Pie looks to have wrapped up the LF position with his blazing speed. I think Pie is going to be a streaky hitter, much like Luke Scott, so I can't really pinpoint his projections. But I'll say a .260/15/60 line shouldn't be too far off.

No one is expecting much out of Caesar Izturis other than solid defense at SS and Izturis at least fit that bill in '09. It would be nice if he could get his OPS up around .700 for one season, but that might be asking too much since he's only had an OPS above .700 once in his career, and that was back in 2004. Looks like we're in for another .250/2/30/.630 season from our SS in 2010.

Ty Wigginton was a disappointment in 2009. His career OPS was over .800 and last year he barely got it over .700. He looks to be the opening day 3B and should hold it down until prospect Josh Bell is ready, so hopefully Wigginton will bounce back, but I have a tough time seeing it. Wigginton looked pretty bad at the plate in 2009. He was almost like a right-handed Jay Gibbons with his infield pop-ups and double-play grounders. I'd be surprised if he gets back to his career averages. It's a good thing the Orioles won't be counting on him other than to keep 3B warm for Bell. .250/10/40/.760

Luke Scott is not included in this because I believe he will be traded this offseason. I believe Reimold will become the DH, and while Scott could also learn 1B, I expect Andy MacPhail to sign a stop-gap option like Carlos Delgado, Nick Johnson or Hideki Matsui while Brandon Snyder is primed to take over the position. I like Scott, but his hot/cold streaks are tedious, and he looks to be squeezed out of a role this offseason. Scott might be able to fetch a good return if he's packaged with a lower-level pitching prospect.

So there you have it...those are who I feel will be the definites to return in an Oriole uniform in 2010.

Do these projections give you hope that the Orioles can compete in 2010? Or do you think they are still a long way off?

They'll be back, Part 1

Brian Matusz enters the 2010 season as the Orioles pitcher with the most potential.

While waiting for the Yankees to win the World Series (it's inevitable, right?) so we can get on with the offseason, I wanted to take a look at the players who will be 100% here on Opening Day.

Pitchers

Jeremy Guthrie had a down year in 2009 after logging solid '07 and '08 campaigns. The one thing Guthrie did do this season was go 200 IP for the first time in his career and avoiding the late-season shutdown that he'd seen in '07 and '08. It's possible that his participation in the WBC before the 2009 season messed up his clock, but that excuse shouldn't be valid after May, and Guthrie struggled for most of the season. He did, however, have some patches of well-pitched games, but overall, Guthrie took a beating in 2009, and finished with a 5.04 ERA and allowed a whopping 35 HR. Looking forward to 2010, Guthrie should come back to his former self and bit, and be a more reliable pitcher, but I don't think Guts will get back to his sub-4 ERA self. You can pencil Guthrie in for a mid-4 ERA from here on out, and that's exactly what the Orioles need at this point.

Brad Bergesen was hands down the Orioles best pitcher in 2009 (3.43 ERA) before he was injured at the end of July and missed the rest of the season. His bruised shin continues to bother him while running and may impact his delivery going forward. It's a shame that taking a ball of the shin has caused him this much pain and difficulty, because had it not been for that, I'd pick Bergesen as the Orioles best SP heading into 2010, with early estimates of Bergy being able to post an ERA around 4.00. While it's still unlikely the injury impacts Bergy in 2010, you have to begin to wonder. It's been 3 full months since he was injured and he's still not at full capacity.

Brian Matusz is without a doubt the Orioles most heralded pitching prospect. He cruised through the minors this season, and logged just a shade under 50 IP this season, earning the 22 year old a respectable 4.63 ERA. He enters the 2010 as the Orioles pitcher with the highest ceiling, but there could still be some speed bumps along the way. When it's all said and done, I do believe Matusz will be the Orioles ace with an ERA under 4.00 and around 200 strikeouts.

Chris Tillman was another big arm the Orioles promoted in 2009, but his results weren't as impressive as Bergesen and Matusz's. Instead, Tillman pitched more like the rookie he was/is instead of hitting the ground running like Bergy and Matusz did. Tillman will have his share of growing pains in 2010 but all said and done he should settle into a mid-rotation role really well with an ERA in the mid-4 range.

I guess you can say Chris Ray is still coming back from Tommy John surgery he had during the 2007 season. He missed the entire 2008 season and by the time he was back in 2009, he looked like he forgot how to pitch. His pitches lacked the movement they once had and his control was hit or miss. When he found the plate, he found the middle of it, resulting in a 7.27 ERA. Ray is down to his last try as an Oriole, but will probably be slated as a back of the bullpen pitcher in '10.

Kam Mickolio really impressed fans in his 13.2 IP, logging 14 strikeouts and a 2.63 ERA. The bad news is that he walked 7 batters in that time. Overall, Mickolio is still somewhat of an unknown, but has a high ceiling entering 2010 as one of the O's more explosive arms out of the bullpen.

Jim Johnson didn't work out well in the closer role after George Sherrill was traded, which means that the Orioles will be using a new closer in 2010. Johnson should slide back into his 8th inning role with relative ease, but even then he was not the dominant pitcher he was in 2008 in either role. Johnson, however, is still the least of the bullpen's worries, and I expect him to head in the direction of his 2008 ERA (2.23). I'd say a 3.00 ERA isn't too much to ask from JJ in '10.

Koji Uehara is far from being guaranteed a spot on the opening day team with a back that has plagued him since his days in Japan. So moving Uehara to the closer's role is probably the Orioles best bet. Uehara clearly can't handle the physical stress of being a reliever, and I believe he won't be able to handle being a closer either, but the Orioles are paying him through 2010 so they might as well try Uehara in that role. The good thing about Uehara is that he throws strikes and has that Asian unphasability going for him, which should work to his advantage in the closer's role. I just don't know if he'll be able to pitch on back-to-back days very often...but then again, how often do the Orioles need a closer on back to back days? I do see Uehara having success in the closer's role depending on his health, though.

Next up, the hitters! Stay tuned!

Just Jauss?

The Orioles fired bench coach Dave Jauss yesterday while keeping all their other coaches, even Juan "The Aztec God of Human Sacrifice" Samuel, who routinely gave runners the green light at third base, only to be thrown out at the plate. Samuel was also very critical of (and almost unprofessional in his criticism) of Orioles whipping boy Felix Pie at one point during the season.

Anyway, letting Jauss go won't get much attention by O's fans, but I think it's another troubling move by an organization that can't seem to get out of its own way.

In my opinion, Jauss should have been the only coach kept of the current coaching staff and would have made a worthy candidate for the managerial job if Dave Trembley was not kept for 2010.

Jauss' track record is impressive. He started in the Montreal Expos organization in 1988, a time when they were routinely bringing up future All Star players. Then he went to the Red Sox organization and bounced around at various positions there from 1997 to 2005 before going to Los Angeles to coach with the Dodgers before coming to the Orioles in 2008.

He's been in winning organizations before. Yet he was let go for reasons that are currently unclear.

If Andy MacPhail wants a more experienced bench coach, maybe someone with previous managerial experience, that's fine. But then why didn't he just let Dave Trembley go if he felt that the Orioles needed more managerial experience?

I'm probably making a mountain out of a molehill, but given the Orioles previous track record, even the smallest moves are cause for concern.

They usually reflect on deeper issues within the organization.

Until then, I'll wait to see what MacPhail says about this personnel change or who he hires to replace Jauss.

As for Jauss, I am sure he'll catch on somewhere else. People will look at his track record and realize he's an asset to any organization.

For whatever the reason, the Orioles didn't think that of Jauss, at least not any more.

Thinking of Carlos

The Orioles need a new 1B in 2010 like humans need air to breathe.

And with 1B prospect Brandon Snyder coming off a disappointing stint in Norfolk where he hit just 2 HR and had a .671 OPS in 262 AB, the Orioles should look outside of the organization to fill this glaring hole.

Enter Carlos Delgado, former Blue Jays, Marlins and Mets 1B.

Remember Delgado? He completely mashed the Orioles when he was with Toronto.

In about a season's worth of AB's against the Orioles, Delgado had 28 HR, 106 RBI and a .919 OPS. Delgado signed with the Marlins in 2005, had another Delgadoesque season, and then was traded to the Mets when the Marlins decided to slash payroll for the millionth time in their history.

Delgado has had some trouble staying healthy lately (he only played in 26 games in 2009), but that gives the Orioles an advantage. Coming off a year when he missed most of the season, Delgado won't command a big contract, and most contending teams won't give him a starting job. The Orioles can. And they can give Delgado a chance to showcase his talent when healthy in hopes that some other team is dumb enough to give him one last payday.

He'll turn 38 next June, and while most O's fans would do a double-take when someone advocates signing another aging slugger whose best days are behind him, I do believe the move makes sense for the Orioles.

Remember Frank Thomas? He was very much like Delgado throughout his career. And as he got older, injuries started to hamper him, and the White Sox let him go his merry way after the 2005 season. Thomas signed with the A's for one season at age 38, stayed healthy for most of the 2006 season, and bashed 39 HR and 114 HR in only 136 games. His OPS was .926.

Now, just because Frank Thomas did it at age 38 doesn't mean that Delgado will. But look at the payoff. The A's never traded Thomas, but if they did, they could have gotten a nice return for him. And if the Orioles sign Delgado and he had a Thomas-like comeback season, the Orioles would benefit no matter what they did -- regardless of whether they traded him or kept him.

But one thing the Orioles better not do if Delgado does have a comeback is sign him to a multi-year deal like the Blue Jays did with Thomas after he left Oakland.

Anyway, a healthy Delgado could still be a threatening clean-up hitter. Just imagine the potential of this line-up:

Roberts 2B
Jones CF
Markakis RF
Delgado 1B
Reimold or Scott DH
Wieters C
Pie LF
Wigginton 3B
Izturis SS

That looks a lot better with him in it than not, doesn't it?

So just remember. If the Orioles sign Delgado this offseason, it won't be for more than one year. Andy MacPhail isn't Syd Thrift or even Mike Flanagan, Jim Beattie or Jim Duquette. Hopefully Delgado will perform at a high-level again and the Orioles can trade him for their future SS or another pitching prospect.

And hopefully, Brandon Snyder will earn his way to the majors at some point in 2010.

2009 in review

Thankfully, the 2009 season is over for the Baltimore Orioles. Despite winning their final 4 games to avoid their first 100-loss season since 1988, the Orioles were a largely a disappointment from start to finish.

The highlights were few and far between.

* There was the epic comeback against the Red Sox, you know the one where they came back down 10-1 in the 8th and 9th inning? You know, the one where they blew their own 4 run lead in the 9th the next day?

* There was a great Nolan Reimold walk-off HR against Toronto in May, capping off a sweep of the Blue Jays. But then the Orioles went 4-10 in their next 14 games.

* And there was the sweep of the defending World Series champion Phillies, in Philadelphia no less. But then the O's were swept by the Florida Marlins.

Although GM Andy MacPhail all but punted the season before Opening Day (how else can you explain starting 2009 with untalented placeholders like Adam Eaton, Mark Hendrickson, and Alfredo Simon in the rotation?), one would've been correct in thinking that the Orioles would have improved as the season went on and the Orioles added quality prospects to their MLB roster. Guys like Nolan Reimold, Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, and Brian Matusz.

But no matter how you slice it, the Orioles played sub-.400 baseball regardless of who was on the roster. In fact, the one positive to take away from 2009 is the fact that the Orioles gave 1,077 at bats to Matt Wieters, Nolan Reimold and Felix Pie and got 452 IP from Brad Bergesen, David Hernandez, Jason Berken, Chris Tillman and Brian Matusz, all of them rookies.

Reimold, Wieters, Pie and Bergesen impressed in extended looks, while Tillman and Matusz gave us enticing coming attractions. But Berken and Hernandez both struggled at times. So goes a rebuilding process.

But what made 2009 perhaps the most disappointing was a letdown from some veteran players.

Nick Markakis needed a final 2-week surge to get his OPS above .800 (.801). He was not himself for the better part of three months.

Adam Jones got off to a blistering hot start in April and May (11 HR, 36 RBI), but cooled off to the point of freezing in June and August before getting hurt.

Aubrey Huff, coming off a great comeback 2008 season in which he posted 32 HR and a .912 OPS, struggled to the tune of a .725 OPS with just 13 HR before being traded in August.

Melvin Mora, who came on strong in the second half of 2008 (1.073 OPS), petered out with a .679 OPS in 2009, what should be his final year as an Oriole.

Ty Wigginton, signed as a slugging utility man with a career OPS above .800, slumped for most of the season and finished with a .714 OPS.

Rich Hill was a reclamation project after a great 2007 and a bad 2008, so there was no guarantees with him, but after he started off reasonably well (O's were 4-0 in his first 4 starts), the wheels fell off and Hill became the 2009 version of Daniel Cabrera and was yanked from the rotation after 13 starts.

Finally, Jeremy Guthrie, who'd turned in back-to-back seasons with an ERA less than 4.00 in 2007 and 2008, watched his ERA soar above 5.00 on the season. Some have blamed his poor performance on participating in the World Baseball Championship in March, but others have said that Guthrie's peripherals have been somewhat lucky in '07 and '08 and the 5.04 ERA Guthrie could be the real Guthrie we're seeing now.

The only veteran on the Orioles to play to their average was Brian Roberts. Roberts set an Oriole record for most doubles in a season, 56, and finished his 3rd consecutive season with 50 or more doubles and an OPS above .800.

As for the bullpen, don't get me started. They repeatedly blew...leads, that is. And once closer George Sherrill was traded in July, the wheels fell off. Jim Johnson was moved to closer and struggled. Chris Ray came back from Tommy John surgery and posted a 7.27 ERA. Matt Albers, a solid reliever in 2008, had an ERA of 5.51 in 2009. Ironically, Mark Hendrickson fared well in the bullpen (3.44 ERA) after failing in the rotation (5.40 ERA). And while Danys Baez seemed to give up the long ball at the worst time possible, he actually performed decently in the bullpen (4.02 ERA) for someone who was about to be released before opening day.

Overall, the pitching was horrible. The Orioles allowed a league leading 218 home runs and were last in the league in many statistical categories. They did improve on walks, moving up to 9th in the AL from 14th a year ago. Yippee.

It should get better in 2010, as the rotation will consist of Bergesen, Guthrie, Matusz and Tillman, but the O's pitching is still a work in progress -- a work that will largely determine whether or not the Orioles see the postseason in the new decade.

And Andy MacPhail won't make any blockbuster moves this offseason, but he should find a veteran starting pitcher who can eat innings, and a stop gap 1B and 3B who can keep the seat warm for corner infield prospects Brandon Snyder and Josh Bell. He also needs to overhaul the bullpen.

That leaves us with Dave Trembley. Trembley's option was picked up just days before the season ended, so he will be back in 2010. It was probably the right move, as Trembley was playing with a short deck talent-wise for most of the season. However Trembley oversaw a 2009 team that continuously made outs on the basepaths and failed to do little things like sacrifice bunt or play fundamentally sound defense. If the Orioles start off slow in 2010, I doubt Trembley makes it through to the end of the season, which makes it curious why is was invited back for 2010.

So could 2009 be another 1988? A season where the Orioles took their lumps as they waited for the future to arrive? We'll see. There are a lot of talented players on the major league roster and in the minors who could be part of an Orioles renaissance in the next few years.

But as we've continuously seen over and over again, the Orioles usually take 1 step forward and 2 steps back, and I expect something similar to happen in 2010.

Expect the unexpected.

This isn't called the Bad Oriole for nothing.

A picture is worth a thousand words

September in Baltimore, hon.