It's no surprise that the 2011 PECOTA projections have the O's finishing in last place with a record of 77-85. It's still a disappointing record, but it would be the team's best record since 2004 when they won 78 games.
Man, has it already been 7 years since the high water mark of the 00's? Ouch.
I do believe that many people around baseball view the O's as a team on the rise, especially after some of the solid but shortsighted moves they've made this offseason. I do believe they could be better, but also much worse, as we saw occur last year to a team that many predicted to win around 75 games.
PECOTA also gives the O's a 5.3% chance of winning the division, 5.6% chance of winning the wild card and an 11% chance of making the playoffs.
To borrow a line from Lloyd Christmas, "So you're telling me there's a chance!"